CBIC's 90% GST Refund Blitz: Exporters' ₹15,000 Cr Lifeline in Volatile Trade Winds

CBIC’s 90% GST Refund Blitz: Exporters’ ₹15,000 Cr Lifeline in Volatile Trade Winds?

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As U.S. shutdown ripples threaten $25B export hits, CBIC’s 90% provisional refunds for inverted duty structures (IDS) are a clutch play. Kicked off Oct 1, it targets ₹25,000 Cr in jammed claims, fast-tracking 90% in 10-15 days. “This flips cash crunches to opportunities,” notes FIEO’s Ashwani Kumar, amid 120K #GSTBlitz X cheers from Tirupur mills.

IDS—where inputs tax higher than outputs—has strangled SMEs: 8-10 month waits at 13% loan rates. Now, textiles (35% claims) and chemicals eye 15% working capital frees-up. But auto parts? Global probe into First Brands’ collapse adds caution, with 10% cost spikes feared.

Reform Ramp-Up: Collections and Cuts Align

Sep GST hit ₹1.89L Cr (+9.1% YoY), per CBIC, boosted by Sep 22 slab slash: Ditching 12%/28% for 5%/18% duo. This “tax trim” could shave household spends 3%, sparking 5% consumption pop. Vs. 2018’s evasion spike (20%), 2025’s AI portals curb leaks 28%.

RBI’s Malhotra, post-Kautilya, linked it to 6.5% repo hold: “Guard trade amid fiscal glide to 4.4% deficit.” Forecasts: ₹18,000 Cr disbursed by Dec, vs. China’s 4% tariff dip resilience.

Sector Snapshots: Gains and Gaps

Pharma APIs trim 12% costs; exporters like Sun Pharma project Q4 reorder surges. Reactions? LinkedIn polls (70% thumbs-up), but auditors warn verification backlogs: “Deficit at 5% can’t overstretch.”

Banking Echoes: From Refunds to Renewed Credit

Pairs with ULI 2.0, slicing loan nods 50%; HDFC (35% export book) targets ₹70K Cr fresh. Post-news, bank Nifty +1.5%, ₹15K Cr FIIs in. Silver’s ₹1.48L/kg dip (-2%) flags hedges needed—rupee 84.5/USD sways.

Trade Tactics for Tomorrow

E-file Q4 claims by Dec 10; ASEAN pivots cut 8% duties. $1.2T export aim by 2030? This policy primes the pump—but geopolitics demands diversification.

  • Cash Catalyst: 90% in 10-15 days unlocks ₹15,000 Cr vs. 8-month drags.
  • Collection Crest: +9.1% to ₹1.89L Cr; slab duo boosts spends 3%.
  • Pharma Perk: 12% cost cuts; bank Nifty +1.5% on credit wave.

Read More:CBIC’s 90% Provisional GST Refunds: Game-Changer for Exporters Facing Trump Tariff Threats?

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