Nifty’s 81,596 Peak: Domestic Flows Defy Geopolitics, Rally to 85K in Sight?

MUMBAI, Oct 10, 2025—Bulls charged: Nifty 50 touched 81,596 on May 21, a 4% May sprint adding ₹5L Cr cap, shrugging off U.S. shutdown jitters. Domestic SIPs (₹2.89T FY25) offset FPI dips, with Morgan Stanley’s 6.8% GDP nod fueling “decoupling” chatter. “Retail’s the new FII,” quips Ridham Desai, as #NiftyHigh racks 2M X posts.

Sensex lagged at 78,500 target, but cyclicals rebound—IT up 5% on TCS’s ₹12,075 Cr Q2. Vs. 2022’s 20% crash, 2025’s 8% correction was tame, thanks to 7.9% FY25 growth.

Flow Forces: Retail vs. Foreign Fickle

Retail AUM ₹65.7T (+23% YoY, AMFI); women 30% folios per Zerodha. FIIs yanked ₹7L Cr since Oct 2024, but domestics plugged gaps. Comparisons: China’s Hang Seng -10% YTD; Nifty +12%.

Hot Sectors, Hot Takes

Financials (HDFC ADD) lead; renewables double to 2030 (IEA). X splits: Bulls toast “Viksit vibes,” bears flag 23x P/E vs. 19x norm. InCred’s Oct picks: Bajaj Auto, Axis.

2025 Crystal Ball: Resilience Rules

Private capex peaks 15-year high; green FDI $4.3B. Moody’s lauds fiscal glide to 4.5% deficit.

Portfolio Power Moves

60% equities; SIP rupee-cost.

• Cap Catalyst: +₹5L Cr on 81,596 peak; domestics counter FPI ₹7L Cr exit.
• Growth Glue: 6.8% GDP; IT/financials +5%.
• Valuation Check: 23x P/E; 85K Nifty, 78.5K Sensex targets.

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